Mahama Leads Bawumia in Latest National Opinion Poll for 2024 Presidential Elections

In the latest national opinion poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics, former Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama emerges as the frontrunner in the race for the presidency in the upcoming 2024 elections. According to the poll released yesterday, April 8, 2024, Mahama leads the incumbent Vice President and flag bearer of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, by a significant margin.

The poll results indicate that Mahama holds a commanding lead with 54.3 percent of the respondents supporting him, while Dr. Bawumia trails behind with 34.9 percent. Other candidates include Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen of the Movement for Change (M4C) with 7.5 percent, Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force Movement (NFM) with 2.3 percent, and one percent for other candidates.

Among first-time voters, Mahama maintains his lead with 52 percent compared to Bawumia's 33 percent. Similarly, among non-first-time voters, Mahama leads with 55 percent, while Bawumia trails with 35 percent.

A notable twist in the regional breakdown reveals Mahama's lead in the North East Region with 58 percent, whereas Bawumia regains the lead in the Ashanti Region with 54 percent. Additionally, Bawumia shows a significant recovery in the Central Region but still trails Mahama by 45 percent to 51 percent.

The methodology employed in the poll involved interviewing 6,128 voters, with 5,928 responding to questions about their intended vote in the December 2024 elections. The poll boasts a confidence level of 99 percent and a margin of error of 1.66 percent. Conducted between March 22 and March 30, 2024, the poll utilized the Electoral Commission’s 2023 voters register as a sample frame.

Furthermore, the poll indicates a concerning outlook for the ruling government as Mahama extends his lead in critical swing regions such as Greater Accra, Central, and Western regions. Despite losing ground in the Central Region, Mahama maintains dominance in Greater Accra and Western regions with 66 percent and 28 percent support, respectively.

Campaign promises also play a pivotal role in influencing voters, with 48 percent citing the "24 Hr Economy" as a significant factor, followed by "Digitalization" at 29 percent. Concerns over the economic crisis see 60 percent of voters attributing partial blame to Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.

With 74 percent of voters unlikely to change their voting intention, the upcoming elections promise to be fiercely contested, as both candidates vie for the presidency amidst an evolving political landscape.